Decline in Births and Rise in Deaths in the U.S. from 2010 to 2023

Between 2010 and 2023, the United States experienced a significant demographic shift characterized by a decline in birth rates and an increase in death rates. According to the August 27, 2025, report from the National Vital Statistics Reports published by the National Center for Health Statistics, the number of births decreased by approximately 10% over this period. Birth rates remained relatively stable from 2010 to 2016, then declined sharply from 2016 to 2019, before fluctuating through 2023. Conversely, the number of deaths increased by about 25%, with a notable rise from 2010 to 2019 and fluctuations thereafter.

Specifically, the crude birth rate dropped by 18%, with annual decreases of roughly 0.8% from 2010 to 2015 and 2.0% from 2015 to 2019; after that, the rates fluctuated. The death rate, on the other hand, rose by 15% during the same period. The ratio of births to deaths decreased by 28%, falling by an average of 1.6% annually before 2019 and then fluctuating afterwards. These trends were particularly evident across the three largest racial and Hispanic-origin groups, with the gap narrowing over time, especially during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Researchers from the National Center for Health Statistics, including Dr. Brady E. Hamilton, analyzed these shifts, highlighting their implications for population dynamics and public health. The findings suggest evolving demographic patterns influenced by factors such as healthcare, socio-economic conditions, and the pandemic’s impact. For more detailed information, visit the full report available at the CDC website.