US Faces Potential Resurgence of Measles Due to Declining Vaccination Rates

Recent scientific modeling highlights a concerning trend: if childhood immunization rates in the United States continue to decline at current levels, the country risks a significant comeback of measles. Researchers from Stanford School of Medicine, including Dr. Nathan Lo and Mathew Kiang, analyzed data and projected future scenarios based on vaccination trends. Their results, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, warn that measles could become endemic again within 25 years if immunization coverage does not improve.

Since the year 2000, measles was declared eliminated in the U.S., meaning the disease became rare and local outbreaks were quickly contained. However, vaccination rates have been gradually falling, from 95% before the pandemic to below 93% in the 2023–24 school year. Even this small decrease, according to the models, could lead to over 850,000 cases of measles and nearly 900 deaths by 2050.

The resurgence would not revert the country to pre-vaccine levels, where over 4 million cases and hundreds of fatalities occurred annually, but measles would once again pose a persistent public health threat, similar to influenza. This resurgence would also compromise herd immunity, leaving newborns and unvaccinated populations vulnerable to infection.

The models predict that if vaccination rates remain steady, the U.S. could see over 170,000 hospitalizations and numerous neurological complications. A further decline in vaccination coverage—by 25% or even 50%—could exponentially increase cases, reaching into the tens of millions, with tens of thousands of deaths.

Experts emphasize that even small improvements in vaccine coverage—such as a 5% increase in MMR vaccination—could significantly reduce future cases. Conversely, political decisions and public skepticism, exemplified by recent developments involving prominent critics of vaccines, threaten to further decrease vaccination rates.

The study highlights the importance of maintaining high immunization coverage to prevent the reemergence of deadly diseases like measles. Public health officials and medical professionals stress that addressing vaccine hesitancy and ensuring access to vaccines are vital steps to safeguard future generations from preventable illnesses.

Source: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-04-approaching-dangerous-measles-precipice-scientists.html