New Mapping Indicates India Faces the Largest Long-Term Impact from Chikungunya Virus

Recent comprehensive maps projecting the global risk of chikungunya reveal that India may experience the most significant long-term effects from this mosquito-borne disease. Conducted by researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, and the International Vaccine Institute, the study utilizes advanced machine learning models that incorporate various data points such as mosquito distribution (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus), temperature suitability reminiscent of dengue spread, regional annual precipitation, environmental factors influencing virus transmission, and country-specific economic indicators like GDP.

The findings estimate that approximately 14.4 million people worldwide are at risk of chikungunya infection annually, with 5.1 million of these individuals located in India. The risk is not confined to currently endemic regions; the modeling suggests that areas previously considered low-risk could also fall prey to outbreaks, potentially expanding the global at-risk population to nearly 35 million, with over 12 million in India alone.

India, Brazil, and Indonesia stand out as the countries most likely to face extensive health impacts, largely due to the long-term disability caused by the virus rather than the initial infection. Around half of the infected individuals may suffer from chronic issues, especially joint pain and mobility difficulties, that persist beyond the initial illness. The study highlights the importance of proactive public health strategies, including targeted vaccination programs, especially for certain age groups most vulnerable to long-term effects.

While chikungunya was first identified over a century ago, its recent re-emergence has led to outbreaks across more than 114 countries since 2004. Transmitted mainly through Aedes mosquitoes, the virus causes high fever and severe joint pain, with some cases being fatal. Currently, there are no specific antiviral treatments; management focuses on supportive care, and two vaccines are available in some nations.

This groundbreaking model not only enhances understanding of current risks but also offers valuable insights into future outbreak preparedness. It underscores the need for global and regional health authorities to prioritize areas at risk and develop vaccination and prevention strategies to mitigate long-term health burdens. The analysis, published in BMJ Global Health, emphasizes that the spread of chikungunya is a growing concern that requires immediate attention and coordinated action to prevent extensive health and economic repercussions worldwide.

Source: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-10-india-biggest-impact-chikungunya.html