Can African Countries Achieve the 2030 Childhood Immunization Targets?

Over the past two decades, many African nations have seen significant improvements in childhood immunization rates. Vaccines remain one of the most effective tools to protect children from deadly diseases like measles, polio, and tetanus. Despite this progress, a recent study indicates that at least 12 African countries will likely not meet the global immunization coverage goals set for 2030. The comprehensive research, published in PLOS Medicine and led by Phuong The Nguyen from Hitotsubashi University, analyzed nearly one million immunization records across 38 countries collected through Demographic and Health Surveys from 2000 to 2019.

Using advanced modeling techniques, researchers projected future trends and found that most countries are on track to reach or surpass targets for vaccines against diseases such as tuberculosis, measles, and polio, with coverage estimates reaching 80-90%. However, disparities persist, especially along socioeconomic lines, with gaps of up to 58% between different wealth groups. Notably, high-development countries like South Africa, Egypt, and Congo Brazzaville are also off course for full immunization targets.

The study highlights that while progress has been made, the pace remains slow in a handful of nations, hampered by challenges such as vaccine affordability, limited healthcare infrastructure, and resource constraints. Disparities are expected to decrease in many countries by 2030, yet some, like Nigeria and Angola, may experience persistent or growing inequalities.

Authors emphasize that sustained efforts driven by national programs, international support, and improved data collection are crucial for closing immunization gaps. They stress the importance of targeted strategies and reliable local data to ensure vulnerable communities are not left behind and to meet the ambitious goals set for 2030.

Ultimately, the findings underscore the need for continued investment in strengthening health systems and addressing socio-economic barriers to achieve equitable immunization coverage across Africa.