Advanced Stroke Risk Calculator Enhances Prediction and Prevention Strategies

Researchers from the University of Vermont have introduced a new, more accurate tool for assessing stroke risk in individuals with atrial fibrillation (A-Fib), a condition impacting over 10 million Americans and a leading cause of stroke. This innovative risk calculator integrates blood test results with existing assessment methods, allowing physicians to tailor prevention strategies more effectively.

Published in the Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis, the study demonstrates that adding specific blood biomarkers related to heart dysfunction, blood clotting, and inflammation significantly improves stroke risk prediction. Traditional tools like the CHA2DS2-VASc score consider factors such as age, sex, and medical history but fall short in accounting for these additional risk factors. The new model, called the CHA2DS2-VASc-Biomarkers score, incorporates these blood tests, offering a more comprehensive evaluation.

The team analyzed data from two large studies involving over 3,100 participants. One study followed 713 individuals on anticoagulants over 12 years, finding that three blood biomarkers could predict stroke risk with better precision. The second involved 2,400 untreated individuals over 13 years, confirming the relevance of these biomarkers in those not on medication. The improved score aims to help clinicians identify patients who would benefit most from anticoagulants, potentially saving lives and reducing healthcare costs.

Anticoagulants are effective in lowering stroke risk but carry risks such as bleeding. Therefore, more precise risk assessments are critical for balancing benefits and harms. The new calculator is accessible online, providing an easy-to-use tool for doctors to make personalized treatment decisions.

This advancement promises a significant shift in stroke prevention, enabling more targeted therapy for high-risk patients while avoiding unnecessary medication in others. The researchers believe that widespread adoption of this tool could optimize patient outcomes and resource utilization in cardiovascular care.

For more details, see the full study in the Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis. This research was supported by data from the REGARDS study, a large-scale investigation into stroke and related diseases.