Global Estimates Highlight the Impact of Inadequate Type 1 Diabetes Care on Mortality and Population Loss
Recent research reveals that over 4 million lives could be saved in 2025 with better type 1 diabetes care, emphasizing urgent global health disparities and the need for improved access to treatment.
Recent modeling studies presented at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) Annual Meeting reveal a concerning rise in the global burden of type 1 diabetes (T1D). The research projects that approximately 9.5 million people worldwide will be living with T1D in 2025, representing a 13% increase since 2021. By 2040, this figure is expected to climb to nearly 14.7 million, driven by increasing incidence rates, aging populations, improved diagnosis, and declining death rates. However, the actual number of individuals affected may be substantially higher due to underdiagnosis and data gaps.
A staggering estimate suggests that around 4.1 million individuals who would have been alive in 2025 have died prematurely because of inadequate T1D care, including roughly 669,000 undiagnosed cases. India, in particular, experiences significant underdiagnosis, with approximately 159,000 deaths attributed to missed diagnoses. Experts emphasize that reducing these preventable deaths should be a top priority, as many lives could be saved with existing treatments and technologies.
The study underscores substantial disparities in diabetes care and outcomes worldwide. For example, remaining life expectancy at age 10 varies widely, from 66 years in Norway to only 6 years in South Sudan. High-income countries generally offer better outcomes, but low- and middle-income nations face stark challenges.
Forecasts show that the T1D population will increase by 55% globally by 2040, with Africa and the Middle East/North Africa experiencing the most significant growth, up 120% and 86%, respectively. In Europe, numbers are projected to rise 37%, with Kazakhstan seeing a 111% increase.
The researchers call for urgent action to improve early diagnosis, ensure access to insulin and essential medicines, and enhance healthcare infrastructure globally. Recognizing data limitations, the study notes that better surveillance and research are needed to refine these estimates and inform policy.
Overall, the findings highlight critical health inequities and the need for global strategies to provide high-quality, affordable T1D care for everyone, everywhere, to prevent unnecessary mortality and improve quality of life.
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