Study Finds Similar Smoking Initiation Risks for Vaping Teens and 1970s Peers in the UK

A recent long-term intergenerational study published in the journal Tobacco Control reveals that UK teenagers who currently vape are just as likely to start smoking cigarettes as their counterparts in the 1970s. This finding is significant given the considerable decline in teenage smoking over the past five decades. The research indicates that while the prevalence of smoking among teens has decreased from over 30% in 1974 to under 12% in 2018, vaping may be influencing current smoking behaviors.

The study highlights that only about 1.5% of teens who don’t vape are likely to start smoking, compared to a striking 33% of those who do vape. Researchers observed that despite the reduction in youth smoking thanks to better tobacco regulations, public education, and shifting social norms, the rise of e-cigarette use complicates this progress. They noted that among modern teens, smoking initiation risk remains high for vapers.

Using data from three UK birth cohorts—those born in 1958, 1970, and 2001—the study analyzed how factors like alcohol use, engagement with education, externalizing behaviors, and parental smoking influence smoking habits over time. The analysis of these cohorts showed a dramatic decrease in teen smoking over the years—from 33% in 1974 to 12% in 2018—but with a concerning resurgence among current e-cigarette users.

Specifically, the probability of smoking among a typical 16-17-year-old was 30% in the 1958 cohort, dropping to 22% in the 1970 cohort. Compared to these historic rates, current vapers in the 2001 cohort faced a much higher risk, with 33% reporting current cigarette use. Researchers caution that the association between vaping and smoking does not necessarily imply causality but suggests that vaping could be reversing some of the declines in youth smoking.

The study emphasizes the importance of targeted prevention strategies to curb e-cigarette use among youth, as current vapers are significantly more likely to take up smoking. It advocates for continued efforts to restrict youth access to e-cigarettes and to reinforce education on the risks associated with nicotine use.

While acknowledging limitations such as incomplete sociodemographic data, the authors conclude that the declining trend in youth smoking is waning, especially among those who vape. They warn that, without effective intervention, vaping might undermine decades of public health progress in reducing adolescent smoking.