Estimated Nearly 600 Deaths in the UK Due to Heat Wave, Study Finds

A recent rapid analysis by researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and Imperial College London projects that approximately 570 people in England and Wales are likely to die as a result of the intense heat experienced from June 19 to June 22, 2025. This assessment utilized decades of UK health and mortality data across 34,753 regions and combined it with high-resolution weather forecasts to estimate heat-related mortality during this unprecedented heatwave.

The study forecasts a daily increase in excess fatalities: about 114 deaths on June 19, 152 on June 20, peaking at 266 on June 21 when temperatures surpass 32°C, and about 37 deaths on June 22 when temperatures drop to the mid-20s. The elderly, particularly those over 65, are expected to bear the brunt of these deaths, accounting for 488 of the estimated total, with over 314 of these among individuals aged 85 and above.

The findings highlight how pre-existing health conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, and respiratory issues intensify vulnerability during extreme heat, as excessive temperatures impose additional stress on compromised immune systems. Nevertheless, heat poses a significant risk across all age groups, with an estimated 82 deaths among those aged 0–64.

Geographically, London is projected to experience the highest number of heat-related deaths, with 129 cases, followed by West Midlands with 106, and Southeast with 81 deaths. These disparities are largely attributable to regional differences in heat intensity, although disadvantaged communities are also more susceptible due to poorer health, housing, and healthcare infrastructure.

Experts emphasize that even a slight rise in temperatures—just one or two degrees—can markedly increase mortality, especially among vulnerable populations. Professor Antonio Gasparrini from LSHTM explains that these excess deaths are significantly amplified by climate change, which has caused UK temperatures to rise by approximately 2°C to 4°C, making heatwaves more deadly.

Climate change-driven heat events are historically underrecognized as deadly; many victims have pre-existing conditions and are not recorded as heat-related deaths. Dr. Garyfallos Konstantinoudis from Imperial College London underscores the urgent need for public awareness and protective measures, especially for older adults living alone.

The study also indicates that London, with its dense population and urban heat island effect, faces the greatest risk, underscoring the importance of climate adaptation strategies. Researchers warn that unless mitigation efforts are intensified, the UK’s heat-related death toll could considerably increase, especially with ongoing global warming, which is expected to reach 2°C by 2050 and as high as 3°C this century.

This analysis aligns with prior research linking climate change to increased heat-related mortality and underscores the critical importance of climate resilience in public health planning. The recent heatwave underscores the growing health threats posed by extreme heat in the UK, with government alerts escalating from yellow to amber to warn vulnerable populations about the rising health risks.

Source: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-06-deaths-uk.html