Reducing US Foreign Aid Could Lead to Millions of Additional Tuberculosis Cases and Fatalities

Recent research highlights the severe consequences of cuts in U.S. foreign aid on global tuberculosis (TB) control efforts. The study, conducted by the Center for Modeling and Analysis, collaborating with the Stop TB Partnership and published in PLOS Global Public Health, predicts that decreasing U.S. funding could result in over 10 million new TB cases and approximately 2.5 million additional deaths across 26 high-burden countries from 2025 to 2030.

U.S. foreign aid has historically been vital for the fight against TB, contributing more than 55% of external funding for TB programs in 2024. The abrupt halt and subsequent reduction in funding during early 2025 have caused many TB initiatives worldwide to shut down, jeopardizing diagnosis, treatment, and prevention efforts, especially in managing drug-resistant TB and co-infections with HIV.

The study utilized mathematical models to assess three scenarios: a minimal impact with recovery within three months, a moderate impact with recovery within a year, and a worst-case scenario where services remain at post-disruption levels. Even under minimal disruptions, about 634,700 new cases and nearly 100,000 deaths are projected. Moderate disruptions could lead to approximately 1.66 million new cases and 268,600 deaths, while the worst-case scenario forecasts catastrophic increases with over 10.6 million cases and 2.24 million deaths.

The analysis underscores that halving the funding cuts could still result in 884,000 additional deaths, highlighting the fragile dependence of TB control programs on sustained U.S. support. While some nations might adapt to these changes, vulnerable populations will face long-lasting adverse effects. The authors emphasize the urgent need for alternative funding sources to sustain critical TB prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and research initiatives aimed at ending TB by 2030.

These findings serve as a stark warning about the potential global health setbacks if international support diminishes, reinforcing the importance of continuous investment in TB control efforts worldwide.

Source: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-09-foreign-aid-millions-tb-cases.html