Personalized Risk Prediction Model Enhances Outcome Forecasting for Early-Stage Hodgkin's Lymphoma

Researchers from Rutgers Cancer Institute, New Jersey's only National Cancer Institute-designated Comprehensive Cancer Center, alongside colleagues from Tufts Medical Center and the University of Manchester, have created and validated the first individualized risk prediction tool for adults diagnosed with early-stage classic Hodgkin's lymphoma. This innovative model, called the Early-stage Hodgkin International Prognostication Index (E-HIPI), estimates the likelihood of progression-free survival over two years, aiding clinicians and patients in making more tailored treatment decisions.

Published in NEJM Evidence and presented at the 18th International Conference on Malignant Lymphoma, the E-HIPI was developed using data from over 3,000 adult patients enrolled in four major international phase III clinical trials and validated in two real-world registry cohorts comprising more than 2,300 patients with early-stage Hodgkin's lymphoma. The model relies on routine clinical measures such as patient gender, tumor size, and common lab results like hemoglobin and albumin levels to predict an individual’s chance of remaining cancer-free for two years.

"Early-stage classic Hodgkin's lymphoma is highly curable, especially in young adults. Despite this, we've lacked a reliable tool to assess individual prognosis," explained Dr. Andrew Evens. "Our global collaboration has led to a robust, dynamic model that enhances personalized treatment approaches and improves long-term patient outcomes."

The E-HIPI outperformed existing classification systems, such as the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) criteria, across all datasets. To facilitate clinical use, researchers developed interactive online calculators that support shared decision-making by providing personalized risk assessments. This tool not only informs individual treatment strategies but also assists in designing future clinical trials.

Lead co-author Dr. Susan Parsons emphasized the potential impact of the model: "This tool can improve communication between patients and healthcare providers by clarifying the risks and benefits of various treatments, ultimately reducing some of the burdens associated with the cancer journey."

The development of the model was made possible through the HoLISTIC Consortium, a global effort combining data from pivotal clinical trials and long-term registry follow-ups. The project underscores the importance of integrated international research in advancing cancer care.

Experts believe that implementing this prediction model could refine treatment planning and lead to better patient outcomes worldwide, marking a significant step forward in Hodgkin's lymphoma management.