Innovative Stroke Risk Calculator Enhances Prediction for Atrial Fibrillation Patients

Researchers from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the University of Vermont have introduced a new, more precise tool to evaluate stroke risk among individuals with atrial fibrillation (A-Fib), a prevalent heart rhythm disorder affecting over 10.5 million Americans and a leading cause of stroke. Published in the renowned Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis, their studies reveal that integrating blood test data into existing risk assessment models significantly improves predictive accuracy.

Atrial fibrillation causes the heart’s top chambers to quiver irregularly, slowing blood flow and increasing the likelihood of blood clot formation. These clots can travel to the brain, triggering strokes. While blood thinning medications, or anticoagulants, are effective in reducing this risk, they carry potential side effects, especially bleeding complications. Thus, accurately identifying patients who truly need these medications is crucial.

Current risk prediction primarily relies on the CHA2DS2-VASc score, which considers age, gender, and medical history. However, this method overlooks key factors like heart dysfunction, inflammation, and clotting tendencies. To address this gap, the researchers developed the CHA2DS2-VASc-Biomarkers score, which incorporates blood test results to refine risk prediction.

In two comprehensive studies involving over 3,100 participants followed for up to 13 years, scientists identified two blood biomarkers that enhance the prediction of stroke beyond traditional scores. These findings lead to a new scoring system capable of helping doctors decide who may benefit most from anticoagulant therapy.

Although the improved calculator is not yet available for clinical use, it promises to reduce unnecessary medication in low-risk patients and ensure high-risk individuals receive appropriate preventive treatment, potentially saving lives and reducing healthcare costs.

Source: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-10-physicians-atrial-fibrillation-patients.html