New Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Tool Guides Statin Therapy Decisions

A recently developed cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment tool by Northwestern Medicine researchers shows promise in identifying patients who would benefit most from statin treatment. Published in JAMA Cardiology on September 11, 2025, the study highlights how this tool can enhance clinical decision-making. The risk calculator, named PREVENT (Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events), provides a more precise estimate of an individual’s 10-year risk for developing CVD, which can inform discussions between healthcare providers and patients about initiating statin therapy.

The study's lead author, Dr. Sadiya Khan, emphasizes that the goal is to support shared decision-making by clearly communicating risk levels. The PREVENT equations were developed in 2023 to improve upon existing models like the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs), offering updated thresholds for when to consider prescribing statins. The research analyzed data from over 5,200 U.S. adults aged 40 to 75, collected through the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys between 2011 and 2020.

Findings suggest that approximately 11.8 million individuals without previous cardiovascular events could be eligible for statins if their 10-year CVD risk exceeds 5%, with an estimated risk reduction of over 2%. Dr. Khan notes that a risk threshold of 3% to 5% seems optimal for identifying those most likely to benefit from lipid-lowering treatment—balancing benefit and personalized care.

This tool aims to facilitate better conversations about medication benefits and risks, potentially leading to more confident patient adherence. While absolute risk assessments are essential, Dr. Khan notes that individual communication strategies are necessary to customize risk discussions effectively.

Overall, the PREVENT risk calculator offers a valuable resource to improve CVD prevention strategies and optimize statin therapy recommendations, ultimately helping reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease in the population.