Increased Winter Child Mortality in England Revealed by New Research

Recent analysis by the University of Bristol-led National Child Mortality Database (NCMD) has highlighted a significant seasonal pattern in child deaths in England, with higher mortality rates occurring during winter months. The study, published on September 10, 2025, examined all child deaths under the age of 18 recorded in the NCMD over a five-year period.

Between August 2019 and July 2024, there was a notable increase of 369 deaths in winter (December to March) compared to non-winter months, revealing that child mortality is, on average, 6.5% higher during the colder season. This fluctuation varied annually, from a minimal 0.8% increase during 2021–22 amid the COVID-19 pandemic to a significant 11% rise in 2022–23.

Age-specific analysis showed that infants experienced a 5.3% increase in winter deaths, whereas children aged 1–9 years were 16.8% more likely to die during winter months. For older children aged 10–17 years, the increase was marginal at 1.3%. Disparities between ethnic groups were also identified; children from Asian or Asian British backgrounds faced an 11.5% rise, and Black or Black British children 10.2%, whereas the increase was lower among children from mixed ethnic backgrounds (5.8%) and white children (5.3%).

Deprivation status emerged as a critical factor, with children in the most deprived areas experiencing a 7.2% rise in winter deaths, compared to only 2.2% in the least deprived areas. Regional differences were evident, with the North East seeing an 11% increase compared to just 2.2% in the East Midlands.

The primary cause of increased winter mortality was infection, accounting for a 70.4% rise in infection-related deaths during colder months. Conversely, trauma-related causes linked to birth, such as intrapartum events, showed a decrease during winter.

Sylvia Stoianova, deputy director of the NCMD, emphasized the importance of these findings, stating that seasonal pressures significantly impact children's health, especially through preventable infections. Addressing the roles of infection, deprivation, and ethnicity in child mortality could enhance targeted interventions to protect vulnerable populations.

Interestingly, the lowest winter mortality rates were recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic years when overall child mortality declined. This underscores the impact of infection control measures on reducing child deaths. The NCMD’s previous research on infection-related mortality remains relevant for developing strategies to lessen winter-related tragedies in children.

Overall, the study reinforces the critical need for improved infection prevention and management, particularly among children with existing health vulnerabilities, to reduce winter mortality and improve child health outcomes.