Global Study Reveals Potential for Systemic Drug Shortages Impacting Millions

A comprehensive global research effort has uncovered that drug shortages are not just localized problems but have the potential to evolve into systemic issues affecting millions of patients and straining healthcare systems across Europe and North America. This groundbreaking study, the largest of its kind, analyzed data from over 52 large databases encompassing more than 600 million people. Researchers examined the use of 57 critical medicines, including antibiotics, cancer therapies, and treatments for chronic conditions.

Drug shortages pose a serious challenge worldwide, disrupting patient care and potentially causing harm. When essential medicines are unavailable, patients face delays in treatment, receive less effective alternatives, or experience complete omission of needed therapies. Such disruptions can lead to worsening health conditions, increased risk of complications, and higher healthcare costs. The World Health Organization (WHO) has emphasized the urgent need for action to tackle these shortages, while the European Medicines Agency (EMA) actively monitors medicine supply issues.

The study, led by researchers from the Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences (NDORMS) at the University of Oxford, explored how shortages influence medicine utilization patterns across different regions. Lead researcher Marta Pineda-Moncusí explained that monitoring such shortages is crucial to understanding their impact and developing strategies to mitigate adverse effects. The team aimed to determine whether shortages caused drops in medicine usage or prompted modifications in prescribing behaviors.

Findings revealed that shortages affected almost all countries studied, with some experiencing drastic declines in medication availability—up to more than a third. Common drugs like amoxicillin and varenicline faced significant shortages, leading to decreased use. Additionally, some medications were repurposed—such as sarilumab, typically used for arthritis, being redirected for COVID-19 patients—thereby limiting options for chronic disease sufferers. While some substitutes, like nicotine replacement therapies, appeared during shortages, many situations lacked effective alternatives, raising safety concerns.

Utilizing advanced data standardization through the European Health Data Evidence Network (EHDEN), which aggregated information from over 200 sources across 29 countries, researchers gained unprecedented insight into the global impact of drug shortages. Professor Peter Rijnbeek highlighted how this approach demonstrates the power of data standardization to generate evidence on a scale previously unachievable, paving the way for better-informed policy decisions.

Pineda-Moncusí stressed that because medicine supply chains are interconnected globally, shortages in one country can cascade into others, severely impacting patient health worldwide. The use of large-scale health data can aid healthcare providers in identifying issues swiftly, designing smarter policies to forecast demand, promoting safe alternative treatments, and prioritizing vulnerable patients during shortages. The study underscores the importance of coordinated international efforts to address and prevent future drug supply disruptions.