Stopping HIV/AIDS Programs Could Lead to a 49% Rise in New Infections by 2030, Study Warns

A recent study led by researchers from Johns Hopkins University indicates that ending federal support for HIV/AIDS initiatives in the United States could significantly increase new HIV infections across major cities. The study employs advanced computer modeling to project future trends based on current data and the impact of the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program, which has been instrumental in providing comprehensive care and treatment for over three decades.

Since its inception in 1990, the Ryan White program has played a crucial role in reducing HIV transmission and improving the quality of life for those living with the virus. The program has helped approximately 500,000 individuals annually, achieving a record HIV suppression rate of over 90% in 2023. Funding cuts could reverse these gains, leading to a substantial rise in new HIV cases.

Using survey data and mathematical modeling, researchers simulated the effects of stopping or reducing funding in 31 cities with high HIV incidence. The results predict that discontinuing the program could cause roughly 75,000 additional HIV infections over five years—an increase of nearly 50%. Moreover, even short-term interruptions of 18 or 42 months could result in 19% and 38% more infections, respectively.

Baltimore City stands out as a city at particular risk, with projections indicating a potential 110% increase in HIV cases if the program is halted. Experts emphasize that consistent access to HIV treatment and prevention services remain vital, as effective medical care can lead to normal lifespans for individuals with HIV and prevent further transmission.

The study underscores that federal funding for HIV/AIDS treatment and prevention is a key determinant in controlling the epidemic. As Dr. Todd Fojo notes, making sure individuals with HIV are effectively treated is the most powerful form of prevention, highlighting the importance of ongoing support for programs like Ryan White.

The researchers plan to extend their analysis to individual states to better understand regional impacts and advocate for sustained federal funding, which has fundamentally improved outcomes since the program’s launch. With continued investment, it is possible to maintain steady progress in reducing new HIV infections and ensuring the health and well-being of affected populations.