Emphysema Detected on Low-Dose CT Scans Can Predict Long-Term Mortality Risks

Recent research has highlighted the significance of emphysema visible on low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) scans used for lung cancer screening, indicating its strong association with increased risk of death over the following 25 years. The study, conducted by a team led by Jessica González Gutiérrez from the Arnau de Vilanova and Santa Maria University Hospital in Madrid, analyzed data from a large cohort of adults aged 40 to 85 with a history of smoking. Participants underwent baseline LDCT scans, and over a median follow-up period of 23.3 years, researchers observed that approximately 29.1% exhibited signs of emphysema, with varying degrees of severity.

The findings revealed that the presence of emphysema was an independent predictor of mortality from all causes, including death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Specifically, emphysema increased the hazard of death from any cause by 29%, from COPD by over three times, and from CVD by 14%. The severity of emphysema correlated with a higher risk of death from COPD and overall causes, though no clear dose-response pattern was noted for cardiovascular mortality.

Further analysis indicated that emphysema significantly predicted mortality from COPD but not from CVD when accounting for other factors, emphasizing its role as a disease marker. Dr. Claudia I. Henschke from Mount Sinai Hospital commented on the findings, emphasizing that emphysema should not be viewed as an incidental CT finding but as a distinct disease entity linked to poorer health outcomes and increased mortality risks from both respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.

This study underscores the importance of recognizing emphysema on routine LDCT scans, suggesting it can serve as a valuable prognostic indicator for long-term health risks in smoking history patients. The research also highlights the potential benefits of early detection and intervention in managing these patients’ health outcomes.

For more detailed insights, see the original publication in the journal Radiology (2025). Source: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-09-emphysema-dose-ct-screening-mortality.html