Study Finds COVID-19 School Closures in the US Were Not Cost-Effective Compared to Other Interventions

Research conducted by the University of Oxford's Department of Statistics and the Leverhulme Center for Demographic Science has evaluated the economic and health impacts of various non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, prior to the availability of vaccines. The study highlights that while school closures prevented approximately 77,200 COVID-19 deaths and lowered transmission by 8.2%, they also resulted in estimated future economic losses of about £1.6 trillion ($2 trillion) due to disrupted education. Students lost over 0.35 school-years of learning, with some states keeping schools closed almost the entire 2020–2021 academic year.

In comparison, measures such as mask mandates were more cost-effective, reducing disease spread by 19% at minimal societal costs. Testing and contact tracing programs also proved to be efficient strategies that balanced health benefits with economic considerations.

Lead author Nicholas Irons emphasized that although the policies could have been optimized, many measures helped mitigate economic damage alongside controlling transmission. The exception was school closures, which had significant long-term impacts on education and the economy. The study suggests that a carefully coordinated combination of rapid testing, contact tracing, mask mandates, and targeted facility closures could effectively manage future outbreaks without the severe educational and economic consequences seen during the pandemic.

The researchers propose that implementing these strategies, supported by improved surveillance data, can inform better pandemic responses. Their findings provide valuable insights into effective measures that maximize health outcomes while minimizing disruptions to society and the economy.

This research underscores the importance of evidence-based decision-making in public health crises, demonstrating that less disruptive interventions can achieve substantial disease control and economic savings.