New Blood Test Can Predict Severe Liver Disease Risk

A groundbreaking study by researchers at Karolinska Institutet demonstrates that a simple blood test can effectively forecast the likelihood of developing severe liver conditions, such as cirrhosis and liver cancer. Published in The BMJ, this research highlights a new predictive tool that could transform early detection efforts in primary care settings. The study utilized routine blood parameters, including age, sex, and liver enzyme levels (AST, ALT, GGT), to develop the CORE model, which has shown promising accuracy in assessing long-term risk.

This risk assessment method is based on data from over 480,000 individuals in Stockholm, monitored over up to 30 years. The findings reveal that approximately 1.5% of these participants developed serious liver diseases or required liver transplants, emphasizing the critical need for early detection.

The CORE model, which outperforms traditional methods like FIB-4, correctly identified future cases of severe liver disease in 88% of instances. It has been validated across diverse populations in Finland and the UK, indicating its broad applicability. A user-friendly, web-based calculator for healthcare professionals is now available, aiming to facilitate early screening in primary care, where most patients initially seek treatment.

According to Dr. Hagström, early detection is crucial since liver diseases are on the rise and have poor outcomes if diagnosed late. The new tool could allow for timely interventions, including drug treatments, which are now accessible for high-risk individuals. The researchers suggest that integration with medical records will enhance clinical use, and further testing is needed for high-risk groups like those with diabetes or obesity.

This advancement offers hope for more effective management of liver health, potentially reducing the burden of liver cirrhosis and cancer worldwide.