Using Blood Markers GDF-15 and eGFRdiff to Predict Kidney Disease Progression in Diabetes

Kidney complications are common in people with diabetes and often develop silently, making early detection challenging. Traditional markers such as serum creatinine and urinary albumin sometimes fall short in accurately predicting those at high risk for rapid kidney decline or death. A new study published in the Journal of Cachexia, Sarcopenia and Muscle explores innovative blood-based biomarkers that could improve risk prediction.

Led by Associate Professor Tomohito Gohda from Juntendo University in Japan, the research highlights two simple blood tests—estimated glomerular filtration rate difference (eGFRdiff) and serum GDF-15 levels—that independently forecast kidney disease progression and mortality in diabetics.

The study involved 638 Japanese adults with diabetes, monitored over more than five years. The results showed that lower eGFRdiff values were associated with a higher likelihood of kidney function decline, while elevated GDF-15 levels correlated strongly with increased mortality risk.

Specifically, each 10-unit increase in eGFRdiff reduced the risk of CKD progression by one-third, whereas higher GDF-15 levels increased the risk of death by over twofold. Importantly, these markers provide complementary insights: eGFRdiff, which may reflect muscle mass loss and metabolic disturbances, was more predictive of kidney deterioration, while GDF-15, a stress-related cytokine linked to inflammation, better indicated mortality risk.

This research suggests that combining these biomarkers could enhance precision in identifying high-risk individuals, allowing for earlier and more tailored interventions. Since CKD can progress to end-stage kidney disease requiring costly treatments like dialysis, early detection and personalized care could significantly improve health outcomes and reduce healthcare costs.

Dr. Gohda emphasizes that inflammation and metabolic abnormalities linked to frailty and sarcopenia may drive CKD progression and mortality. The assessment of eGFRdiff alongside GDF-15 levels provides a promising approach for better risk stratification in diabetic patients, potentially leading to improved quality of life and prolonged survival.

This advancement in biomarker research offers hope for more proactive and personalized management of diabetes-related kidney disease, addressing a critical need amid rising global diabetes prevalence.