Healthcare Spending Expected to Surpass Economic Growth from 2024 to 2033

Recent projections indicate that healthcare expenditure in the United States will grow at a rate faster than the country's gross domestic product (GDP) during the period from 2024 to 2033. According to a study published online on June 25 in Health Affairs, the annual increase in national health spending is anticipated to be 8.2% in 2024 and 7.1% in 2025, driven by ongoing high demand for health services and medical goods. Between 2026 and 2027, the growth rate is expected to moderate to approximately 5.6%, partly due to a decline in health insurance coverage resulting from the expiration of temporary premium subsidies introduced in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, and a slowdown in service utilization.

Over the entire decade, the study projects that healthcare spending will consistently outpace GDP growth, with average increases of 5.8% compared to 4.3% for the economy annually. This trend is expected to elevate the health sector's share of the GDP to 20.3% by 2033, up from 17.6% in 2023. The authors note that these projections are based on current laws, and future legislative changes could significantly alter these estimates, affecting insurance coverage, health spending, and overall economic impact.

The findings underscore the growing economic footprint of healthcare in the U.S. and highlight the importance of policy measures that can influence future spending trends and health system sustainability.

Source: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-07-health-expenditure-gdp-growth.html