Environmental Factors as Key Indicators of Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Europe

Recent research highlights the significant role of environmental factors in predicting highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks across Europe. The study demonstrates how specific local conditions, such as minimum autumn temperatures, water levels in lakes and ponds during winter, and the presence of mute swans (Cygnus olor), can serve as crucial indicators for early outbreak detection.

The findings, published in Scientific Reports, stem from a machine learning model trained on data from HPAI outbreaks reported between 2006 and 2021. By analyzing variables like seasonal temperature variations, precipitation patterns, wild bird populations, poultry densities, and water or vegetation levels, researchers could assess outbreak risks more accurately.

A key discovery was that colder autumn temperatures significantly increased the likelihood of outbreaks, although the impact varied regionally—warmer minimum temperatures were linked to higher risk in some areas, while colder temperatures elevated risk in others. Additionally, lower vegetation density in late months and decreased water levels in early months were associated with a reduced risk. The presence of mute swans was also identified as a factor that could elevate the probability of an outbreak.

These insights can enhance regional surveillance efforts, enabling earlier detection and more targeted interventions to prevent HPAI spread. Given the rise in avian influenza cases and their potential spillover into mammals and humans, understanding these environmental drivers is vital for both animal and public health protection.

The research underscores the importance of integrating environmental monitoring into disease prediction models to improve outbreak preparedness and response strategies.

Source: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-07-environmental-factors-key-predictors-avian.html