California Tobacco Tax Hike Leads to Significant Increase in Smoking Cessation

Researchers from the University of California San Diego and UC San Francisco have observed a notable rise in smoking cessation rates following California's substantial tobacco tax increase, Proposition 56, approved by voters in 2016. The study, published in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute, analyzed data over a three-year period, revealing that the tax hike was associated with a considerable decrease in smoking prevalence.

Proposition 56 increased the state tobacco tax by over 200%, with tobacco companies passing much of this cost onto consumers. Lead researcher Shu-Hong Zhu from UC San Diego explained that the significant price hike likely motivated many smokers to quit. The study found that the three-month quit rate in California increased from 11.5% before the tax, to 14.2% afterward. Meanwhile, other states that raised their tobacco taxes during the same period saw little to no change in quit rates, and states without tax increases experienced a decline.

Furthermore, California significantly boosted its tobacco prevention budget, with spending per capita rising by approximately 272%. This increase in prevention funding, coupled with higher cigarette prices, contributed to the rise in cessation rates. The average cigarette price in California rose by 30.8% after the tax increase, compared to only 6.3% in other states that also increased taxes.

The study suggests that large tax increases, along with increased investment in prevention programs, can have a meaningful impact on public health by reducing smoking rates. Dr. Michael Ong, a health policy expert at UCLA, highlighted the importance of comprehensive efforts to create substantial change.

While the exact cause of California's success remains uncertain—whether the tax increase directly influenced quitting or the increased prevention funding played a role—the results underscore the potential of robust fiscal policies in tobacco control. Experts emphasize that significant, well-funded initiatives are essential for meaningful progress in reducing tobacco use, which remains a leading cause of preventable disease and death.

This study reinforces the importance of governmental commitment to tobacco tax policies as an effective public health strategy. It demonstrates that substantial legislative action, coupled with increased prevention spending, can lead to higher quit rates and better health outcomes.

Source: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-06-smokers-big-hike-california-tobacco.html