Advances in Predicting Cognitive Development in Autistic Children

A groundbreaking study from the University of Montreal has introduced a novel approach to understanding how children with autism may develop cognitively over time. Researchers have combined genetic data with developmental milestones to create a predictive model that offers early insights into potential intellectual outcomes. This advancement aims to provide parents and clinicians with more reliable information earlier in a child's life, enabling proactive support tailored to each child's needs.

The study analyzed data from 5,633 children across three North American cohorts, integrating various genetic variants—many previously considered insignificant—with developmental assessments such as language acquisition and motor skills. The objective was to predict the likelihood of intellectual disabilities, which affect approximately 10 to 40% of autistic children, often becoming evident around ages 6 to 8. Currently, predictions rely mainly on observing early milestones, which can be limited in accuracy, especially in very young children.

The new model successfully predicted around 10% of cases of intellectual disability, highlighting its potential to serve as a benchmark for future improvements. Notably, it was twice as effective in distinguishing children with low versus high probabilities of intellectual disability among those with significant delays. Experts believe that as genetic testing becomes more accessible and comprehensive, the predictive accuracy will improve, allowing for more personalized medical interventions.

A key aspect of this approach is communicating the degree of certainty associated with each prediction, helping families make informed decisions. Although the current predictive capacity is limited, the researchers emphasize that ongoing discoveries in genetics and evolving computational techniques will likely enhance the model's precision in the near future.

This development marks a significant step toward early, individualized intervention strategies in autism, aiming to bridge gaps in support and optimize developmental outcomes for children and their families.

source: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-04-autistic-child-cognitively.html