COVID-19 Models Indicate Universal Vaccination Could Prevent Over 100,000 Hospitalizations in the US

Recent scenario projections by the US Scenario Modeling Hub, a collaborative effort among 17 academic research institutions, highlight the significant impact of universal COVID-19 vaccination strategies in reducing hospitalizations and deaths across the United States. These models suggest that extending vaccination recommendations to all eligible individuals, rather than focusing solely on high-risk groups, could avert over 100,000 hospitalizations in the upcoming year.

Despite the ongoing challenges posed by COVID-19, including higher in-hospital mortality rates compared to seasonal influenza during the 2023–2024 fall-winter season, vaccination remains a crucial tool. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), which advises the CDC on vaccine use, has recently undergone substantial changes in its membership, shifting away from experienced public health experts to political appointees, some of whom have questioned vaccine efficacy.

To better understand potential future outcomes, researchers employed decision-analytical models to project hospitalizations and deaths from April 2024 to April 2025. The models simulated six different scenarios based on immune escape rates, ranging from 20% to 50% annually, and evaluated three vaccination strategies: no recommendation, targeting high-risk populations, or recommending vaccination for all eligible individuals. The projections were calibrated against reported data on weekly hospitalizations and deaths.

Findings indicated that in the worst-case scenario—characterized by high immune escape rates and no vaccination recommendation—hospitalizations could reach nearly 1 million, with over 62,000 deaths. Conversely, under the best-case scenario with low immune escape and a universal vaccination recommendation, projected hospitalizations could be significantly reduced to around 550,000, with approximately 42,000 deaths.

A noteworthy aspect of the study was the impact on older adults, where universal vaccination recommendations prevented additional hospitalizations and deaths compared to high-risk-only strategies. Specifically, a universal approach could avert about 11,000 more hospitalizations and 1,000 more deaths among those aged 65 and older.

The models also revealed that current national patterns diverged slightly from projections, with seasonal peaks differing in timing and magnitude. However, the analysis underscores the importance of vaccination as an essential public health measure to mitigate COVID-19's burden in the coming year, especially given the potential for new variants with increased immune escape.

Overall, the study emphasizes that expanding vaccination coverage universally could save thousands of lives and reduce the strain on healthcare systems, reaffirming the critical role of vaccines in ongoing pandemic response efforts.